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Understanding of Shaping Decision Calculus

PI: Jonathan Wilkenfeld, University of Maryland

Year Selected for Award: 2017

What Actions Deter? Moving from Theory to Casual Understanding of Shaping Decision Calculus

Principal Investigator: Jonathan Wilkenfeld, University of Maryland

Co-Investigators: Devin Ellis, University of Maryland

Year of Award: 2018-2021

Managing Service Agency: Office of Naval Research

Project Description:

This project analyzes great power behavior in gray zone crises - conflicts that unfold in the space between war and peace, with actors purposely using multiple elements of power to achieve political-security objectives with activities that are ambiguous or cloud attribution, and challenge international norms. Focusing primarily on the examples of Russia, China, and their proxies, it seeks to establish the best ways for the U.S. to shape adversary behavior and manage escalation in this relatively new but increasingly prevalent type of conflict.

Associated Publications:

Murauskaite, E., Quinn, D., and Wilkenfeld, J,. 2019. Escalation Management in the Gray Zone: Great Power Decision Calculus. Central and Eastern European International Studies Association (CEEISA). Belgrade, Serbia.
Murauskaite, E. 2018. Escalation Management In The Gray Zone: Transatlantic Insights On Lithuanian Security Challenges. Presentation, Centennial Meeting of the American Association of Baltic Studies (AABS), Stanford University.
Murauskaite, E., Quinn, D., and Wilkenfeld, J,. 2019. Resources Versus Norms: Exploring Measures Short of War in Competitive Relationships. Pan-European Conference on International Relations (CISA). Sofia, Bulgaria.
Murauskite, E., Ellis, D., Quinn, D., Thomson, C., Wilkenfeld, J. and Gartzke, E. 2019. Extended Deterrence In The Grayzone: Transatlantic Insights On Baltic Security. Journal Of Baltic Security Studies.
Wilkenfeld, J. 2018. Challenges To Crisis Management In The Current International System. Presentation, Inaugural Address, The Hellenic National Defence General Staff, "Athena 18" Security and Crisis Management International Conference, Athens, Greece, , 2018.
Wilkenfeld, J. and Quinn, D. 2019. From Crisis Management to Conflict Resolution in Mediated International Crises, and Negotiating Complex Conflict Environments. Presentation, Folke Bernadotte Academy, Research-Policy Dialogue: Research on Mediation in Protracted and Complex Conflicts, Jerusalem, Israel. 2019.