On February 24, 2020, Minerva-funded researcher Dr. Michael Gabbay (Univ. of Washington, Applied Physics Laboratory) was awarded the Journal of Peace Research Article of the Year, for "Fraticide in Rebel Movements," (co-authored with Emily Kalah Gade & Mohammed M. Hafez). The article is based upon research funded by ARO and the Minerva Research Initiative. This article was judged on its theoretical contribution, methodological innovation and sophistication and relevance to practical aspects of building peace. Most research on the dynamics of insurgency movements have focused on coalitions of rebel groups -- this project is unique in its examination of the factors that lead to infighting within coalitions, as well as power asymmetries across rebel groups that raise the probability of within-coalition conflict. The project creates an innovative and one-of-a-kind dataset based on insurgent documents drawn from communiques, social media posts, and web forms by different rebel organizations, which are subjected to rigorous network analytic methods; leading to the conclusion that organizationally distant groups have a higher propensity for infighting. This project addresses key Army priorities in Soldier Lethality (Situational Awareness) and enables "decide faster" capabilities to increase overmatch in volatile regions.
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