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Jan. 13, 2020

Robert Jervis's new article, "On the Current Confrontation with Iran"

Most obviously, humility is in order. Those of us of a certain age can remember when many thought that the 1972 mining of Hanoi and Haiphong would lead to something worse than the Cuban missile crisis. In the mid-1980s, few analysts thought the Cold War would soon end. Many journalists and not a few scholars claim deep knowledge of the Middle East and the ability to predict how everyone will react, but we should recognize that the layer of regional expertise in the United States is...

Dec. 20, 2019

Minerva researchers' new article on "Exploring the Social-Ecological Factors that Mobilize Children into Violence"

This article applies the social-ecological model to children’s mobilization into two violent groups—Central American gangs and terrorist organizations. While these two groups clearly differ in important ways, there are contextual similarities that frame a child’s involvement in each. For example, both flourish in low-resource settings where governmental structures may have been weakened or disrupted. Does it follow, therefore, that similar processes are at play in relation to children engaging in violent groups?

Dec. 18, 2019

Paul Staniland's new article on "India's New Security Order"

A crisis and a crackdown have defined India’s security policy in 2019. In February, the Indian Air Force launched an airstrike into Pakistan following a suicide bombing in Kashmir. This then led to a crisis, dogfights, and missile threats. In August, the government in New Delhi surged security forces into Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir and revoked its special status, beginning months of detentions, restrictions, and claims about the beginning of a radically new politics in Kashmir.

Dec. 17, 2019

Owl in the Olive Tree post on "The Puzzle of International Intervention in Conflict-Affected States"

Minerva-funded researchers Jessica Piombo, Naazneen H. Barma, and Naomi Levy's Owl in the Olive Tree post on "The Puzzle of International Intervention in Conflict-Affected States". One of the conundrums of post-conflict interventions is that despite copious amounts of international assistance devoted to the dual enterprise of strengthening states and building peace, many post-conflict countries—such as Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Iraq, and South Sudan—remain either poorly governed, stubbornly insecure, or, worst of all, both. Perhaps even more puzzling, however, are countries like Uganda, where peace is lasting but governance...

Dec. 10, 2019

Eric McGlinchey's new article on "Questioning Sinophobia in Central Asia"

(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo) Analysts have devoted considerable attention to the rise of Sinophobia in Central Asia.[1] Chinese loans, we are told, are forcing Central Asian states into ever-growing dependency on Beijing. Chinese companies setting up shop in Central Asia crowd out local industry and employ Chinese nationals rather than local residents. And to add insult to economic injury, China threatens Central Asians’ ethnonational future.

Dec. 9, 2019

Mia Bloom's new article on "No Place to Hide, No Place to Post: Lessons from Recent Efforts at "De-Platforming" ISIS

The online media platforms of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) blend graphic audiovisual content with religious writings to sanction and justify violent terrorist attacks throughout the world. ISIS has utilized propaganda to its advantage, not only to bolster its expansion in Iraq and Syria but also to recruit followers and disseminate the group’s ideology worldwide.

Dec. 5, 2019

Owl in the Olive Tree post on "Beneath the "Crime-Terror Nexus": Local Power Struggles, Competition over Resources, and Corrupt State"

Minerva-funded researchers Mariya Omelicheva and Lawrence Markowitz's Owl in the Olive Tree blog post on "Beneath the "Crime-Terror Nexus": Local Power Struggles, Competition over Resources, and Corrupt State". The post-Cold War era has been marked by policy and academic debates about the cooperative links between criminal and terrorist actors. According to the prevailing view, the dissolution of the Soviet Union resulted in...

Dec. 4, 2019

Minerva-funded researchers' latest commentary on "How to Stabilize Ukraine Long Term? Securitize Well-Being"

What’s the best way for the United States to support Ukraine? The country is the principal arena in the high-stakes geopolitical standoff between the United States (with its NATO allies) and Russia. While a horrific and seemingly intractable war with Moscow ongoing in eastern Ukraine since 2014 has overwhelmed the government, the fledgling administration of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also now finds itself enmeshed in American domestic politics.

Dec. 2, 2019

Scott Atran's new article on "This is Your Brain on Terrorism: The Science Behind a Death Wish"

In a series of behavioral studies of frontline combatants in Iraq and brain imaging studies of self-identified extremist in Spain, research teams found that those who are most willing to make costly sacrifices, including fighting and dying, were motivated by sacred values and shunned deliberative reasoning.

Nov. 20, 2019

Erik Gartzke's new article on "Blood and Robots: How Remotely Piloted Vehicles and Related Technologies Affect the Politics of Violence"

New technologies such as Remotely Piloted Vehicles (RPVs) make it possible to remove human beings from direct involvement in combat. How will this evolving dynamic affect the practice and purposes of political violence? Will conflict become ‘costless’ in human terms as machines replace people on the front lines or will the logic of war continue to

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Robert Jervis's new article, "On the Current Confrontation with Iran"
By Robert Jervis | Jan. 13, 2020
Most obviously, humility is in order. Those of us of a certain age can remember when many thought that the 1972 mining of Hanoi and Haiphong would lead to something worse than the Cuban missile crisis. In the mid-1980s, few analysts thought the Cold War would soon end. Many journalists and not a few scholars claim deep knowledge of the Middle East and the ability to predict how everyone will react, but we should recognize that the layer of regional expertise in the United States is...
Minerva researchers' new article on "Exploring the Social-Ecological Factors that Mobilize Children into Violence"
By Emma Cardeli, Mia Bloom, Sarah Gillespie, Tanya Zayed, and B. Heidi Ellis | Dec. 20, 2019
This article applies the social-ecological model to children’s mobilization into two violent groups—Central American gangs and terrorist organizations. While these two groups clearly differ in important ways, there are contextual similarities that frame a child’s involvement in each. For example, both flourish in low-resource settings where governmental structures may have been weakened or disrupted. Does it follow, therefore, that similar processes are at play in relation to children engaging in violent groups?

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