News | Aug. 1, 2022

New Minerva-funded Publication, "Tipping Points: Challenges in Analyzing International Crisis Escalation"

By Chong Chen, Jordan Roberts, Shikshya Adhikari, Victor Asal, Kyle Beardsley, Edward Gonzalez, Nakissa Jahanbani, Patrick James, Steven E Lobell, Norrin M Ripsman, Scott Silverstone, Anne van Wijk

Why do some near crises tip over into full-blown crisis and others do not? This paper considers existing scholarship and identifies four key barriers to using quantitative analysis for tipping-point analyses: strategic indeterminacy; the incentives for conflict parties to avoid inefficiencies; the paucity of cases; and the availability of quality data. Due to these challenges, many do not perform well as immediate causes for crisis escalation.

To read the full article, click here.

Associated Minerva-funded project:
Power Projection, Deterrence Strategies, and Escalation Dynamics in an Era of Challenging Near Peers, Rogue States, and Terrorist and Insurgent Organizations