Terrorism, Governance, and Development

Terrorism, Governance, and Development

Principal Investigator: Jacob N. Shapiro, Princeton University

Co-Investigators: Eli Berman, University of California, San Diego; Joshua Blumenstock, University of Washington; Jason Lyall, Yale University; Joseph Felter, Stanford University; David Laitin, Stanford University 

Years of Award: 2009-2015

Supporting Service Agency: Air Force Office of Scientific Research

Project Description

The "Terrorism, Governance, and Development" project has focused on understanding how efforts to rebuild social and economic order in conflict and post-conflict regions can effectively reduce violence. Demonstrating the value of rigorous analysis of micro-level data on conflict and the policies implemented to prevent or resolve them, the project brings game-theoretic models--an approach of proven utility to the analysis of non-violent social systems--to the study of conflict. The project also helped establish the Empirical Studies of Conflict (ESOC) Project, which continues to be a resource for researchers working on insurgencies, civil wars, and other sources of politically motivated violence worldwide. 

Project Website

Owl in the Olive Tree posts

• Berman, Eli, and Jacob N. Shapiro. 2019. Engaging Overseas: Lessons for Afghanistan and Beyond. Owl in the Olive Tree. January 17.

Select Publications

• Berman, Eli, Joseph H. Felter, and Jacob N. Shapiro, with Vestal McIntyre. 2018. Small Wars, Big Data: The Information Revolution in Modern Conflict. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
• Steele, Abbey. 2017. Democracy and Displacement in Colombia's Civil War. Cornell University Press. 
• Johnston, Patrick B., Jacob N. Shapiro, Howard J. Shatz, Benjamin Bahney, Danielle F. Jung, Patrick Ryan, and Jonathan Wallace. 2016. Foundations of the Islamic State Management, Money, and Terror in Iraq, 2005-2010. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation. 
• Shapiro, Jacob N. 2016.The Terrorist's Dilemma: Managing Violent Cover Organizations. Princeton University Press. 
• Condra, Luke N, Michael Callen, Radha K. Iyengar, James D. Long, and Jacob N. Shapiro. 2018. Damaging democracy? Security provision and turnout in Afghan elections. Economics and Politics. January 2019.
• Kaplan, Oliver and Enzo Nussio. 2018. Community counts: The social reintegration of ex-combatants in Colombia. Conflict Management and Peace Science. 35(2): 132-153. 
• Kaplan, Oliver and Enzo Nussio. 2018. Explaining Recidivism of Ex-combatants in Colombia. Journal of Conflict Resolution. 62(1): 64-93. 
• Fair, C. Christine, Patrick Kuhn, Neil Malhotra, and Jacob Shapiro.  2017. Natural Disasters and Political Engagement: Evidence from the 2010–11 Pakistani Floods. Quarterly Journal of Political Science. 12(1): 99-141. 
• Heger, Lindsay and Danielle Jung. 2017. Negotiating with Rebels: The Effect of Rebel Service Provision on Conflict Negotiations. Journal of Conflict Resolution. 61(6): 1203-1229. 
• Steele, Abbey, Christopher Paik, and Seiki Tanaka. 2017. Constraining the Samurai: Rebellion and Taxation in Early Modern Japan. International Studies Quarterly. 61(2): 352–370.
• Johnston, Patrick B. and Anoop Sarbahi. 2016. The Impact of US Drone Strikes on Terrorism in Pakistan and Afghanistan. International Studies Quarterly. 60: 203-219.
• Crost, Benjamin, Joseph H. Felter, and Patrick B, Johnston. 2016. Conditional cash transfers, civil conflict and insurgent influence: Experimental evidence from the Philippines. Journal of Development Economics. 118(1): 171-182.
• Balcells, Laia  and Abbey Steele. 2016. Warfare, political identities, and displacement in Spain and Colombia. Political Geography. 51: 15-29.   
• Shapiro, Jacob N., and Nils B. Weidmann. 2015. Is the Phone Mightier Than the Sword? Cellphones and Insurgent Violence in Iraq. International Organization. 69(2): 247-274. 
• Calderón, Gabriela, Alberto Díaz-Cayeros, Beatriz Magaloni and Gustavo Robles. 2015. The Beheading of Criminal Organizations and the Dynamics of Violence in Mexico. Journal of Conflict Resolution. 59(8): 1455-1485. 
• Cilliers, Jocobus, Oeindrila Dube, and Bilal Sidiqqi. 2015. The White-Man Effect: How Foreigner Presence Affects Behavior in Experiments. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization. 118: 397-414.  
• Callen, Michael, Clark C. Gibson, Danielle F. Jung and James D. Long. 2015. Improving Electoral Integrity with Information and Communications Technology. Journal of Experimental Political Science. 3(1): 4-17. 
• Dafoe, Allan and Jason Lyall. From Cell Phones to Conflict? Reflections on the Emerging ICT-Political Conflict Research. Journal of Peace Research.  
• Heger, Lindsay L. 2015. Votes and Violence: Pursuing Terrorism While Navigating Politics. Journal of Peace Research.
• Shapiro, Jacob N., David A Siegel. 2015. Coordination and security: How mobile communications affect insurgency. Journal of Peace Research. 52(3): 312-322.
• Hansen-Lewis, Jamie, and Jacob N. Shapiro. 2015. Understanding the Daesh Economy. Perspectives on Terrorism. 9(4) 142-155. 
• Callen, Michael and James D. Long. 2015. Institutional Corruption and Election Fraud: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Afghanistan. American Economic Review. 105(1): 354-81. 
• Lyall, Jason, Yuki Shiraito, and Kosuke Imai. 2015. From Cell Phones to Conflict? Reflections on the Emerging ICT-Political Conflict Research. Journal of Politics. 77(3): 833-848.    
• Berman, Eli, and Alia M. Matanock. 2015. The Empiricists' Insurgency. Annual Review of Political Science. 18: 443-464. 
• Bueno de Mesquita Ethan, C. Christine Fair, Jenna Jordan, Rasul Bakhsh Rais, and Jacob N. Shapiro. 2015. Measuring political violence in Pakistan: Insights from the BFRS Dataset. Conflict Management and Peace Science. 32(5): 536-558. 
• Fair, C. Christine, Neil Malhotra, and Jacob N. Shapiro. 2014. Democratic Values and Support for Militant Politics: Evidence from a National Survey of Pakistan. Journal of Conflict Resolution. 58(5): 743-770. 
• Crost, Benjamin, Joseph Felter, and Patrick Johnston. 2014. Aid under Fire: Development Projects and Civil Conflict. American Economic Review. 104(6): 1833-1856. 
• Callen, Michael, Mohammad Isaqzadeh, James D. Long, and Charles Sprenger. 2014. Violence and Risk Preference: Experimental Evidence from Afghanistan. American Economic Review. 104(1):123-148. 
• Blair, Graeme, Kosuke Imai and Jason Lyall. 2014. Comparing and Combining List and Endorsement Experiments: Evidence from Afghanistan. American Journal of Political Science. 58(4): 1043-1063. 
• Palk, Christopher. 2014. Does Lineage Matter? A Study of Ancestral Influence on Educational Attainment in Korea. European Review of Economic History. 18(4): 433-451. 
• Daly, Sarah Zuckerman. 2014. The Dark Side of Power-Sharing: Middle Managers and Civil War Recurrence. Comparative Politics. 46(3): 333-353. 
• Driscoll, Jesse and Nicholai Lidow. 2014. Representative Surveys in Insecure Environments A Case Study of Mogadishu, Somalia. Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology. 2: 1-18. 
• Bahney. Benjamin W., Radha K. Iyengar, Patrick B. Johnston, Danielle F. Jung, Jacob N. Shapiro, and Howard J. Shatz. 2013. Insurgent Compensation: Evidence from Iraq. American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings. 103(3): 518-522. 
• Daly, Sarah Zuckerman. 2013. State Strategies in Multi-Ethnic Territories: Explaining Variation in the Former Soviet Union and Eastern Bloc. British Journal of Political Science. 44(2): 381-408. 
• Biddle, Stephen, Jeffrey A. Friedman, and Jacob N. Shapiro. 2013. Correspondence: Assessing the Synergy Thesis In Iraq. International Security. 37(4): 173-198. 
• Berman, Eli, Joseph H. Felter, Jacob N. Shapiro, and Erin Troland. 2013. Modest, Secure, and Informed: Successful Development in Conflict Zones. American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings. 103(3): 512-517. 
• Blair, Graeme, C. Christine Fair, Neil Malhotra, and Jacob N. Shapiro. 2013. Poverty and Support for Militant Politics: Evidence from Pakistan. American Journal of Political Science. 57(1): 30-48. 
• Callen, Michael and Nils B. Weidmann. 2013. Violence and Election Fraud: Evidence from Afghanistan. British Journal of Political Science. 43(1): 53-75.   
• Blair, Graeme, Kosuke Imai, and Jason Lyall. 2013. Explaining Support for Combatants During Wartime: a Survey Experiment in Afghanistan. American Political Science Review. 107(4): 679-705.  
• Salehyan, Idean and Nils B. Weidmann. 2013. Violence and Ethnic Segregation: A Computational Model Applied to Baghdad. International Studies Quarterly. 57(1): 52-64. 
• Egel, Daniel. 2013. Tribal Heterogeneity and the Allocation of Development Resources: Evidence from Yemen. Journal of Development Economics. 101: 228-232. 
• Biddle, Stephen, Jeffrey A. Friedman, and Jacob N. Shapiro. 2012. Testing the Surge: Why did Violence Decline in Iraq in 2007? International Security. 37(1): 7-40.
• Johnston, Patrick B. 2012. Does Decapitation Work? Assessing the Effectiveness of Leadership Targeting in Counterinsurgency Campaigns. International Security. 36(4): 47-79. 
• Fair, C. Christine, Neil Malhotra, and Jacob N. Shapiro. 2012. Faith or Doctrine? Religion and Support for Political Violence in Pakistan. Public Opinion Quarterly. 76 (4): 688-720.
• Heger, Lindsay, Danielle F. Jung, and Wendy Wong. 2012. Organizing for Resistance: How Group Structure Impacts the Character of Violence. Terrorism and Political Science. 24(5): 743-768.   
• Condra, Luke N, and Jacob N. Shapiro. 2012. Who Takes the Blame? The Strategic Effects of Collateral Damage.American Journal of Political Science.  56(1): 167-187. 
• Chou, Tiffany. 2012. Does development assistance reduce violence? Evidence from Afghanistan. Economics of Peace and Security Journal. 7(2): 5-13.   
• Shapiro, Jacob N., 2012. Terrorist Decision-Making: Insights from Economics and Political Science. Perspectives on Terrorism. 6(4/5): 5-20.
• Berman, Eli, Jacob N. Shapiro, and Joseph H. Felter. 2011. Can Hearts and Minds Be Bought? The Economics of Counterinsurgency in Iraq. Journal of Political Economy. 119(4): 766-819. 
• Cederman, Lars-Erik,  Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, and Nils B. Weidmann 2011. Horizontal Inequalities and Ethnonationalist Civil War: A Global Comparison. American Political Science Review. 105(03): 478-495. 
• Weidmann, Nils B., 2011. Violence “from above” or “from below”? The Role of Ethnicity in Bosnia’s Civil War. Journal of Politics. 73(04): 1178-1190.
• Berman, Eli, Michael Callen, Joseph H. Felter, and Jacob N. Shapiro. 2011. Do Working Men Rebel? Insurgency and Unemployment in Afghanistan, Iraq, and the Philippines. Journal of Conflict Resolution. 55(4): 496-528.