Integrating Structural Theories of Revolution with Evolutionary Models to Predict Societal Resilience and (in)Stability
Principal Investigator: Sergey Gavrilets, University of Tennessee
Years of Award: 2018-2021
Managing Service Agency: Army Research Office
Project Description:
In this project, we will leverage and advance recent and current DoD investments in the study of societal resilience by integrating structural theories of revolution from political science with recent advances in theoretical biology, economics, and cultural evolution. Our proposed work will yield new and improved modeling tools enabling analysts to assess risks for political stability posed by intra-elite divisions, various extremist groups, and external shocks in different regions, greatly increasing
explanatory and predictive power.
Select Publications:
Perry, Logan, Mahendra Duwal Shrestha, Michael D. Vose, and Sergey Gavrilets. 2018. "Collective Action Problem In Heterogeneous Groups With Punishment And Foresight". Journal Of Statistical Physics 172 (1): 293-312.
Turchin, Peter, Nina Witoszek, Stefan Thurner, David Garcia, Roger Griffin, Daniel Hoyer, Atle Midttun, James Bennett, Knut Myrum Næss, and Sergey Gavrilets. 2018. "A History Of Possible Futures: Multipath Forecasting Of Social Breakdown, Recovery, And Resilience". Cliodynamics: The Journal Of Quantitative History And Cultural Evolution 9 (2): 124-139.