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Refugee Flows and Instability

PI: Alex Braithwaite, University of Arizona

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Refugee Flows and Instability

Principal Investigator: Alex Braithwaite, University of Arizona

Co-Investigators: Toby Davies, University College London; Faten Ghosn, University of Arizona, and Shane Johnson, University College London

Year of Award: 2016-2021

Managing Service Agency: Army Research Office

Project Description:

This project designs tools for the collection and analysis of fine-grained data on the transnational movements of refugees out of conflict zones. These data are used to test hypotheses regarding why individuals flee conflict zones as refugees, how they determine which route to take, and what effect they have on the security and stability of the destinations at which they settle. We gather data via deep case analyses and surveys of former Lebanese refugees from the Lebanese Civil War, survey experiments with current Syrian refugees in Lebanon, and focus groups with these populations. We also draw upon detailed administrative data of subnational outflows and destinations. We integrate analyses across these scales via the development of spatial interaction and agent-based models of refugee flows to facilitate development of protocols for forecasting flows and instability and better understanding the effects of various policy interventions.

Associated Publications

Braithwaite, A., Chu, T., Curtis, J. and Ghosn, F. 2018. Violence and the perception of risk associated with hosting refugees. Public Choice, 178(3-4), pp.473-492.

Braithwaite, A., Salehyan, I., and Savun B. 2019. Special Issue of the Journal of Peace Research on conflict and refugees.

Firth, M., Simon, M., Davies, T., Braithwaite, A., and Johnson, S. Forthcoming. Spatial Interaction and Security: A review case study of the Syrian refugee crisis. Interdisciplinary Science Reviews.

Ghosn, F., and Braithwaite, A. 2018. Could Contact Stem the Rising Tide of Negative Attitudes Towards Hosting Syrian Refugees in Lebanon? Oxford Monitor of Forced Migration: Field Monitor 7(2):69-74.

Ghosn, F., Braithwaite, A. and Chu, T. 2018. Violence, displacement, contact, and attitudes toward hosting refugees. Journal of Peace Research, 56(1), pp.118-133.