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Refugee Flows and Instability

PI: Alex Braithwaite, University of Arizona

Year Selected for Award: 2016

Refugee Flows and Instability

Principal Investigator: Alex Braithwaite, University of Arizona

Co-Investigators: Toby Davies, University College London; Faten Ghosn, University of Arizona, and Shane Johnson, University College London

Year of Award: 2016-2021

Managing Service Agency: Army Research Office

Project Description:

This project designs tools for the collection and analysis of fine-grained data on the transnational movements of refugees out of conflict zones. These data are used to test hypotheses regarding why individuals flee conflict zones as refugees, how they determine which route to take, and what effect they have on the security and stability of the destinations at which they settle. We gather data via deep case analyses and surveys of former Lebanese refugees from the Lebanese Civil War, survey experiments with current Syrian refugees in Lebanon, and focus groups with these populations. We also draw upon detailed administrative data of subnational outflows and destinations. We integrate analyses across these scales via the development of spatial interaction and agent-based models of refugee flows to facilitate development of protocols for forecasting flows and instability and better understanding the effects of various policy interventions.

Associated Publications

Ghosn, Faten & Alex Braithwaite (2018). ‘Could Contact Stem the Rising Tide of Negative Attitudes Towards Hosting Syrian Refugees in Lebanon?’ Oxford Monitor of Forced Migration: Field Monitor 7(2): 69-74.
Braithwaite, Alex, Tiffany S. Chu, Justin Curtis, & Faten Ghosn (2019). ‘Violence and perceptions of risk associated with hosting refugees.’ Public Choice 178(3): 473-492.

Ghosn, Faten, Alex Braithwaite, & Tiffany S. Chu (2019). ‘Violence, displacement, contact, and attitudes towards hosting refugees.’ Journal of Peace Research 56(1): 118-133.

Braithwaite, Alex, Idean Salehyan, & Burcu Savun (2019). ‘Refugees, forced migration, and conflict: Introduction to the special issue.’ Journal of Peace Research 56(1): 5-11.

Michael J. Frith, Miranda Simon, Toby Davies, Alex Braithwaite, & Shane D. Johnson (2019). ‘Spatial interaction and security: A review and case study of the Syrian refugee crisis.’Interdisciplinary Science Reviews 44(3/4): 328-341.

Braithwaite, Alex. (2019). ‘Armed conflict and forced displacement.’ In Francesca Grandi (ed.),Armed Conflict Survey. London: International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Ghosn, Faten (2020). ‘Lessons from History: Ending Internal Displacement in Post-Civil War Lebanon.’2020 Global Report on Internal Displacement.
Braithwaite, Alex, Joseph M. Cox, & Faten Ghosn (2021). ‘Should I stay or should I go? The decision to flee or stay home during civil war.’ International Interactions: 47(2): 221-236.

Ghosn, Faten, Tiffany Chu, Miranda Simon, Alex Braithwaite, Michael Frith, & Joanna Jandali (2021). ‘The journey home: Violence, anchoring, and refugee decisions to return.’ Forthcoming at American Political Science Review.

Braithwaite, Alex, Michael Frith, Burcu Savun, & Faten Ghosn (2022). ‘Government Targeting of Refugees in the Midst of Epidemics.’ Forthcoming at Perspectives on Politics.

Alex Braithwaite, Tuqa Hameed, & Faten Ghosn. ‘Under pressure: When refugees feel pressured to leave their host countries.’ Forthcoming at Journal of Refugee Studies.