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Risk to National Economies Posed by A Marine Chokepoint Shutdown

PI: Lincoln Pratson, Duke University

Year selected for award: 2016

Assessing the International Risk to National Economies Posed by A Marine Chokepoint Shutdown

Principal Investigator: Lincoln Pratson, Duke University

Co-Investigators: Jun Shepard, Duke University

Year of Award: 2017-2021

Managing Service Agency: Army Research Office

Project Description:
Marine chokepoints are vital passageways for international trade. The primary objective of this three-year study is to rigorously assess the risk shipping restrictions through key marine chokepoints would pose to national economies, thereby identifying potential sources of future geopolitical conflict. To date, we have classified national economies based on historical trade patterns, quantified trade flows through key maritime chokepoints, developed a statistical analysis of restrictions through one such chokepoint (Strait of Hormuz), and built a large-scale trade model that estimates the direct and indirect trade flows moving through each chokepoint. We are currently in the final year of the study.

Associated Publications:
Pratson, Lincoln. forthcoming. "Direct And Embodied Trade Flows Through Key Maritime Chokepoints". Maritime Policy And Management.
Pratson, Lincoln. forthcoming. "Embodied Energy Security Of National Economies 1995-2015". Applied Energy.