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Does Current Investment Predict Future Violence

PI: Ethan Kapstein, Arizona State University

Year selected for award: 2014

Does Current Investment Predict Future Violence: Lessons from Afghanistan

Principal Investigator: Ethan Kapstein, Arizona State University

Years of Award: 2014-2017

Managing Service Agency: Office of Naval Research

Project Description:
Over the past decade the United States and its allies have devoted significant blood and treasure to the stabilization of Afghanistan. But now that foreign troops are departing, how do we know whether the Afghan people are becoming more or less confident in the future political stability and economic growth of their country? The purpose of this study is to examine domestic investment levels as a proxy measure for expectations concerning Afghanistan’s future trajectory. To do so, we gather data and conduct econometric analysis of the relationship between economic activity and violence using a unique dataset drawn from a range of sources in Afghanistan. Beyond Afghanistan, this study could have widespread methodological importance regarding the assessment of post-conflict environments. Investment levels could provide domestic official and members of the international community with an important indicator concerning confidence in political and economic arrangements.

Select Publications:
Blumenstock, Joshua, Tarek Ghani, Sylvan Herskowitz, Ethan Kapstein, Thomas Scherer, and Ott Toomet. 2018. "Insecurity And Industrial Organization". World Bank Group.
Scherer, Thomas. 2015. "In Kabul, Political Gridlock Is 'Worse' Than Violence". United States Institute Of Peace. The Olive Branch.