Taking Development (Im)balance Seriously: Using New Approaches to Measure and Model State Fragility
Principal Investigator: Jonathan Moyer, University of Denver
Co-Investigators: Erica Chenoweth, Cullen Hendrix, Barry Hughes, Oliver Kaplan, and Tim K. Sisk
Years of Award: 2015-2020
Managing Service Agency: Army Research Office
Project Description: The goal of this project is to better understand the structural drivers of political instability with a particular focus on structural imbalances as a driver of Arab Spring related events and a possible omitted variable in previous analysis. We have created data, tools, and analysis that can be open and useful in further analysis of the drivers of political instability historically, in the present, and also to think about the future. We have also connected to a wide range of external policy-oriented actors in the further dissemination of these results. To accomplish these goals we have created a series of research deliverables at different stages of dissemination. We have extended our understanding of temporal variation in the drivers of political instability have quantified different clusters of dimensions of political instability have identified particular structural imbalances that make some countries more prone to political instability, and have created new data and tools to support further analysis.
Bello-Schunemann, Julia, and Jonathan Moyer. 2019. "Understanding The Nature And Course Of Structural Pressures Is Key For Conflict Prevention, Development And Peacebuilding". Institute for Security Studies.
Bowlsby, Drew, Erica Chenoweth, Cullen Hendrix, and Jonathan D. Moyer. 2019. "The Future Is A Moving Target: Predicting Political Instability". British Journal Of Political Science, 1-13.
Hendrix, Cullen, and Sooyeon Kang. 2019. "Keeping Up With The Future: Upgrading Forecasts Of Political Instability And Geopolitical Risk". Peterson Institute For International Economics.