Temporal Networks of Environmental Refugee Relocation: Security and Socioeconomic Impacts
Co-Principal Investigator: Kash Barker, University of Oklahoma and Ashly Townsen, Air War College
Co-Investigators: Chie Noyori-Corbett, OU; Andres Gonzalez, OU
Years of Award: 2024-2026
Managing Service Agency: Army Research Office
Project Description:
At the end of 2022, 108.4 million children, women, and men were forcibly displaced as they sought safety from conflict and persecution, according to the United Nations. Unfortunately, a much larger refugee crisis is looming because of climate change and its cascading effects, with potentially 1 billion climate refugees on the move by 2050 according to the UN. Such a large-scale forced migration has direct implications on the economy of the affected regions, as well as the national governance, security, and well-being. Climate refugee displacement will occur over a period of decades, which requires new decision-making frameworks able to handle decades-long, adaptive, decentralized, and equitable decisions. The path connecting climate change and migration patterns needs to be looked at through the perspectives of both human security and national security. This project deals with designing refugee reassignment strategies that maximize the well-being and quality of life of the refugees, while considering the complex socio-technical constraints and objectives associated with multiple entities involved, including refugees and governments. Integrating systems engineering, social work, and security policy, we propose a security- and socioeconomic-driven multi-layer network optimization approach where each layer of the network represents a snapshot in a longitudinal network analysis.