Cooperation and Conflict Dynamics in Deterrence Networks
Principal Investigator: Michael Gabbay, University of Washington, Applied Physics Laboratory
Years of Award: 2024 - 2027
Managing Service Agency: Army Research Office
Project Description:
Building and strengthening relations with US allies and partners is a core component of integrated deterrence, the centerpiece of the 2022 National Defense Strategy. In Europe, NATO is a formal, collective alliance, whereas in the Indo-Pacific region, in which many countries are hedging between the US and China, the US seeks to weave together a web of flexible, yet reinforcing, coalitions, including participation of European allies. At the same time, key US adversaries – China, Russia, Iran, North Korea – are becoming more aligned. This network of regionally and globally linked ties of hostility and partnership raises the prospect that a local conflict may spread regionally and perhaps beyond.
Our proposed effort seeks to address central questions associated with deterrence involving coalitions beyond the formal alliances that have been the focus of the literature on extended deterrence. These include: How do loose networks of alignment deter or fan conflict? What affects their cohesion and credibility? Can hedgers continue to hedge and if not, which side will they join? Our approach will employ a quantitative framework that synthesizes network and dynamical systems concepts to develop metrics which will inform the development of theoretical propositions and predictive methods to be tested on historical data. We will employ a signed network representation, in which positive and negative tie values correspond to cooperation and conflict respectively. This integrated representation of cooperation and conflict is essential to capture the fact that deterrence and escalation dynamics are deeply linked. The use of dynamical systems theory will enable modeling of the emergence and transformation of low-dimensional structures that can characterize international systems, such as the onset of systemic war. We will develop models and metrics to assess the stability of international systems with respect to escalation to major wars, the deterrence effectiveness of different coalition structures, and potential shifts in state alignments.