Anticipating Coastal Population Mobility: Path to Maladaptation or Sociopolitical Stability
Principal Investigator: Anamaria Bukvic, Virginia Tech
Co-Principal Investigators: Peter A. Beling, Virginia Tech; Tom Ellison, Center for Climate Security
Years of Award: 2024-2028
Managing Service Agency: Office of Naval Research
Project Description:
This project evaluates how coastal adaptation and maladaptation may affect population mobility and aggravate sociodemographic, economic, cultural, political, ecological, and governance challenges that could destabilize US allies, partners, and territories in the Indo-Pacific. This region is highly prone to extreme weather events, sea level rise, and other climate change and ecological stressors. The benefits and risks of adaptation or maladaptation in response to coastal changes for regional stability and US national security are significant. Coastal geographies in this region play a vital role in US power projection near potential flashpoints of top priority to the National Defense Strategy, including the South and East China Seas and Taiwan. The US Department of Defense (DOD) increasingly relies on these allies, partners, and territories to conduct joint exercises and deployments essential to its strategy of integrated deterrence in the region. This research will assess the mobility outcomes of three different coastal adaptation scenarios (adaptation, no adaptation, maladaptation) in coastal areas essential to US strategy in the Indo-Pacific: Japan, the Philippines, and Guam. These scenarios can serve as crucial push-pull forces of local and regional migration. For example, adaptation measures like gray infrastructure can protect populations but also increase a false sense of security and encourage development and in-migration, resulting in overcrowding, social disconnect, and long-term vulnerability. Ultimately, maladaptation can lead to an out-flux in the workforce and increase the social vulnerability of those staying behind. The novelty of our approach is that it centers on adaptation/maladaptation as pull-push forces driving population movement away from or towards the coasts.
Our interdisciplinary team combines unique expertise in coastal adaptation and migration (social science perspective), data science (AI/ML and systems research), and climate/ecological security policy. It will deliver basic social science research using mixed methods and integrating expert and local knowledge in developing and validating conceptual, geospatial, and ML models. The project will have four interconnected components: 1) Assessment of existing conceptual frameworks, tools, and datasets to identify relevant data and indicators; 2) Expert knowledge solicitation to determine key climate risks and adaptive/maladaptive responses, rank indicators of adaptation and mobility based on their importance, and produce Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) encompassing contextual factors in study locations; 3) Geospatial Information System (GIS) and Machine Learning (ML) modeling to develop plausible scenarios of population movement in response to different adaptation pathways; and 4) Validation of modeling products using expert input. The project’s implications for the defense are multifaceted. The stability and prosperity of these strategically vital study locations in the face of climate change are crucial prerequisites of their ability to support US interests. This project will also have substantial broader impacts, primarily targeting the future student workforce and policy-makers.