Conflict Resilience Across Scales: Theory and Data to Evaluate Societal Resilience to Water and Climate Shock
Principal Investigator: Kate Brauman, Global Water Security Center, University of Alabama
Co-Investigators: Brian Britt (University of Alabama), Jameson Hayes (University of Alabama), and Matthew VanDyke (University of Alabama)
Years of Award: 2024-2027
Managing Service Agency: Air Force Office of Scientific Research
Project Description:
Understanding and promoting societal resilience – maintaining social function in the face of disturbance – is vital given potential domestic and international threats worldwide. Understanding societal response to water disturbances is of particular importance in the face of a changing climate and increasing resource scarcity, as biophysical data alone are insufficient to identify areas at risk for water conflict. This project sheds light on both the value of existing indicators of societal resilience and the way societal resilience functions across scales. The project team will expand data on water conflict and cooperation events by developing and testing new methods to overcome persistent barriers in monitoring conflict-cooperation outcomes, leveraging recent developments in machine learning, generative AI and large language models. We will then evaluate which potential elements of resilience most effectively buffer societies from shocks to the water system. This insight will allow us to develop new conceptual models for how societal resilience can reduce conflict potential in human-environmental systems. Improved insight into societal resilience will improve the ability to anticipate when any type of biophysical shock might develop into unrest, allowing data-driven insights to inform policies for managing instability.