TimeBase: Systematically Mapping and Modeling Temporal Differences in Strategic Thinking, Signaling, (Inter-) Acting between the U.S., Russia, and China, and How They Matter
Principal Investigator: Adam Stulberg, Georgia Institute of Technology
Years of award: 2024-2026
Managing Services Agency: Air Force Office of Scientific Research
Project Description:
From the rhythms of diplomacy to the tempos of warfare, time is a pervasive yet often underappreciated dimension of international relations. While scholars and practitioners have long recognized the importance of temporal factors such as timing, sequencing, and horizons at shaping national perceptions, risk propensity, strategies, and interactions in great power competition, our deeper understanding of these dynamics remains limited and often anecdotal. Existing research tends to focus on narrow aspects of temporality or to rely on Western-centric assumptions, rather than engaging in systematic, cross-cultural analysis grounded in empirical evidence. Project TimeBase seeks to develop a comprehensive, data-driven architecture for uncovering the influence of temporal perceptions, playbooks, and dynamics on national decision-making and strategic behavior of key actors in the United States, China, and Russia. It will harness the domain knowledge and analytical skills of social science researchers, analysts, strategists, and policymakers, while leveraging cutting-edge computational methods and AI tools to process vast amounts of data (test and numerical), identify patterns (historical, hidden, and emergent), and generate/refine and validate novel hypotheses and causal mechanisms. Findings from applying and meshing large and diverse data sets will inform respective hypotheses that, in turn, will be tested qualitatively and quantitatively using both induced and critical case studies related to US-Rus, Rus-PRC, US-PRC (e.g. space, lessons from Russia's war in Ukraine, strategic escalation, others uncovered from the data analysis). By providing diagnostic tools for assessing the temporal orientations of key actors, predictive and interactive models for anticipating the consequences of different temporal strategies, and actionable recommendations for managing temporal-strategic challenges, the project will generate insight for U.S. policymakers and defense planners at navigating an increasingly complex and face-paced global environment.