"Un"Resilience: Drawing Insights from Societal Collapse
Principal Investigator: Jose Padilla, Old Dominion University
Years of award: 2024-2027
Managing Services Agency: Army Research Office
Project Description:
We propose to study societal collapse to infer the typology of shocks, or combination thereof, that lead to societal collapse. This approach helps identify the conditions that lead to societal collapse, which are identifiable, or resilience, which may be less observable. We will explore four criteria that signify collapse in socioecological systems: loss of system identity, fast loss of identity, substantial system output losses, and enduring impacts. Collapse tells us what makes us “un-resilient.” Contribution of the research include: 1) Datasets including data about societal collapse indicators, shocks and stressors, and a Societal Collapse Index that can be used in future social science research; 2) Development of a statistically-derived and tested Societal Collapse Index; and 3) A theory of societal collapse. Our project aims to operationalize and measure collapse for insights into resilience. Collapse characterization will be aligned with the Political, Military, Economic, Social, Information, Infrastructure (PMESII) framework for consideration in operational environments and connecting with DoD military and humanitarian objectives.